Webinar: The Migration Splash: Why Australia’s Net Overseas Migration Surged and Fell After COVID-19

Presenters: Professor Alan Gamlen, ANU Migration Hub & Professor Peter McDonald, University of Melbourne

Abstract: Australia’s Net Overseas Migration (NOM) rose sharply after COVID-19 before falling just as rapidly, prompting claims of policy failure and forecasting error. This paper argues that this volatility reflects delayed adjustment in a demand-driven migration system following an unprecedented global shock. Using new Australian Bureau of Statistics data, we document the roles of pent-up arrivals, suppressed and delayed departures, and temporary visa backlogs in driving post-pandemic dynamics. We show why NOM is inherently difficult to predict, why forecasts should be treated as scenarios rather than targets, and why simple pre-COVID extrapolations are misleading. We propose an alternative “migration splash” framework to conceptualise post-shock adjustment.

Speaker bios

Professor Alan Gamlen is a leading social scientist of international migration and Director of the ANU Migration Hub. His research examines how states govern migration and shape global mobility. He has held senior academic roles internationally and advises governments and organizations on migration policy and governance.

Professor Peter McDonald is an eminent demographer known for influential work on migration, fertility, population policy, and demographic change. For the past five decades his research has shaped understanding of low fertility, family policy, and population trends in Australia and globally.

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